Journal of Postgraduate Medicine
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Worldwide trend in measles incidence from 1980 to 2016: A pooled analysis of evidence from 194 WHO Member States


 Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu, India

Correspondence Address:
Y Krishnamoorthy,
Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Puducherry, Tamil Nadu
India
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/jpgm.JPGM_508_18

PMID: 31169135

Background: Decline in measles cases has not been uniform across countries and regions. Hence, we assessed the trend of measles from 1980 to 2016 with respect to WHO regions, World Bank income groups, and globally. Methods: We have conducted secondary data analysis by using the data on measles incidence from Global Health Observatory. For clustering adjustment, random intercept modeling with negative binomial distribution was used. Results: Globally, there was decline in the measles incidence from 4211,431 in 1980 to 132,325 in 2016. This accounts for around 8% decline in the measles cases every year (IRR – 0.92, P < 0.001). The results showed that there was a true declining trend after adjusting for clustering at regional (IRR – 0.90, P < 0.001) and income group level (IRR – 0.91, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Current study showed that there was significant decline in the incident number of measles cases based on worldwide, regional, and income group estimates, but insufficient to achieve the measles elimination target by 2020.


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    -  Krishnamoorthy Y
    -  Sakthivel M
    -  Eliyas S K
    -  Surendran G
    -  Sarveswaran G
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Online since 12th February '04
2004 - Journal of Postgraduate Medicine
Official Publication of the Staff Society of the Seth GS Medical College and KEM Hospital, Mumbai, India
Published by Wolters Kluwer - Medknow